The committee believes that the two most reliable comprehensive estimates of aggregate production are the quarterly estimates of real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and of real Gross Domestic Income (GDI), both produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). The committee concluded that both employment series were thus consistent with a business cycle trough in April. This series also shows a clear trough in April. Accordingly, the committee also considered the employment measure from the BLS household survey, which excludes individuals who are paid but on furlough. Workers on paid furlough, who became more numerous during the pandemic, thus resulted in an overcount of people working. In the survey, individuals who are paid but not at work are counted as employed, even though they are not in fact working or producing. However, the committee recognized that this survey was affected by special circumstances associated with the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020. This series reached a clear trough in April before rebounding strongly the next few months and then settling into a more gradual rise. On the employment side, the committee normally views the payroll employment measure produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which is based on a large survey of employers, as the most reliable comprehensive estimate of employment. In the current case, all of those indicators point clearly to April 2020 as the month of the trough. In determining the date of a monthly peak or trough, the committee considers a number of indicators of employment and production. The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date. The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession associated with the February 2020 peak. Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion. An expansion is a period of rising economic activity spread across the economy, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. In determining that a trough occurred in April 2020, the committee did not conclude that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity. Because the most recent trough was in April 2020, the last month of the recession was April 2020, and May 2020 was the first month of the subsequent expansion. In the NBER’s convention for measuring the duration of a recession, the first month of the recession is the month following the peak and the last month is the month of the trough. The NBER chronology does not identify the precise moment that the economy entered a recession or expansion. The recession lasted two months, which makes it the shortest US recession on record. The previous peak in economic activity occurred in February 2020. The committee has determined that a trough in monthly economic activity occurred in the US economy in April 2020. Transportation Economics in the 21st Centuryĭetermination of the April 2020 Trough in US Economic ActivityĬambridge, JThe Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research maintains a chronology of the peaks and troughs of US business cycles.Training Program in Aging and Health Economics.The Roybal Center for Behavior Change in Health.Retirement and Disability Research Center.Measuring the Clinical and Economic Outcomes Associated with Delivery Systems.Improving Health Outcomes for an Aging Population. Early Indicators of Later Work Levels, Disease and Death.Conference on Research in Income and Wealth.Boosting Grant Applications from Faculty at MSIs.Productivity, Innovation, and Entrepreneurship.International Finance and Macroeconomics.
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